Every elected democratic leader in history has required the respect and loyalty of the senior combat commanders of his military, especially if there are active military conflicts which he has to manage. Afghanistan may be in peril of slipping back into chaos or control by the Taliban, thanks to Bush's neglect of that conflict and the resources consumed by his war in Iraq. That could lead to the reconstitution of a terrorist infrastructure in Afghanistan and vastly strengthen the Taliban position in Pakistan, where nuclear weapons are stored. That would not only defeat President Obama in '12, it would return the neo-con gang to power in Washington.
Barack Obama campaigned on the promise of finishing the job in Afghanistan, i.e. stabilizing the country to secure it against repossession of any of its territory by transnational terrorists. If you liked any of Obama's promises, you cannot fault him for wanting to make good on all of them. Two senior U.S. commanders responsible for Afghanistan asked Obama not to release the photos of U.S. soldiers torturing Afghan prisoners, because they were afraid that would endanger American soldiers -- by stimulating new acts of terrorism or other violence against them. It is not serious to believe that any president would disregard such a request.
The president knows that the torture photos are likely to be released eventually anyway. Not releasing them now does not give Dick Cheney or any Bush official any measure of protection against whatever sanctions can be taken against them by foreign or U.S. prosecutors, or further exposure of their crimes by congressional investigators. But by removing himself further from the causal sequence that leads to those hearings and investigations, he denies the news media any ability to claim that he is using his presidency to persecute his predecessor's -- a claim that the media as well as the Republicans would be sure to make. To have a successful or even historic presidency, he has to use his window of peak political power to begin to solve the central problems felt by the majority who elected him, and that means the economy, health care, and the other long-neglected public needs that jeopardize this country's ability not only to recover from this serious recession but to compete in a world changing faster than Bill Clinton can talk.
The choice that President Obama faced was not complex: Successful political leaders minimize political risks in order to keep dry the powder of their influence over all the other political actors in government who have to be herded toward the changes he wants to make. They also have to make sure that even non-political actors in the system, such as influential military leaders (or the heads of independent regulatory agencies, or even Supreme Court justices), believe that he respects their professional judgment -- or else they will be trashing his, behind his back. To release these photos over the objection of military commanders would have made more difficult the president's task of gaining more of their confidence for tougher decisions ahead where he may have to turn down their advice.
Barack Obama campaigned on the promise of finishing the job in Afghanistan, i.e. stabilizing the country to secure it against repossession of any of its territory by transnational terrorists. If you liked any of Obama's promises, you cannot fault him for wanting to make good on all of them. Two senior U.S. commanders responsible for Afghanistan asked Obama not to release the photos of U.S. soldiers torturing Afghan prisoners, because they were afraid that would endanger American soldiers -- by stimulating new acts of terrorism or other violence against them. It is not serious to believe that any president would disregard such a request.
The president knows that the torture photos are likely to be released eventually anyway. Not releasing them now does not give Dick Cheney or any Bush official any measure of protection against whatever sanctions can be taken against them by foreign or U.S. prosecutors, or further exposure of their crimes by congressional investigators. But by removing himself further from the causal sequence that leads to those hearings and investigations, he denies the news media any ability to claim that he is using his presidency to persecute his predecessor's -- a claim that the media as well as the Republicans would be sure to make. To have a successful or even historic presidency, he has to use his window of peak political power to begin to solve the central problems felt by the majority who elected him, and that means the economy, health care, and the other long-neglected public needs that jeopardize this country's ability not only to recover from this serious recession but to compete in a world changing faster than Bill Clinton can talk.
The choice that President Obama faced was not complex: Successful political leaders minimize political risks in order to keep dry the powder of their influence over all the other political actors in government who have to be herded toward the changes he wants to make. They also have to make sure that even non-political actors in the system, such as influential military leaders (or the heads of independent regulatory agencies, or even Supreme Court justices), believe that he respects their professional judgment -- or else they will be trashing his, behind his back. To release these photos over the objection of military commanders would have made more difficult the president's task of gaining more of their confidence for tougher decisions ahead where he may have to turn down their advice.
1 comment:
Salve, Tribunus. When I saw your insightful comments on Al Giordano's site, I knew I had to check out your blog.
I'm glad I did. I'll be bookmarking this blog, and look forward to reading your posts.
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